Iraq could be just the first domino to fall in Mideast

by Christophe de Roquefeuil

WASHINGTON, April 9 (AFP) - The United States wants the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq to be a catalyst for change in the Middle East, an objective which could spark problems with other countries. For US strategists, regime change in Baghdad opens the door to a new Middle East with greater democracy, social modernization, an end to terrorism, the expansion of US interests and the security of Israel.

The "Democratic Domino" theory favored by conservatives close to the White House suggests that democratic change in Baghdad would serve as an engine for change in nearby countries such as Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia. If not, there are those within the administration who are not shy about making veiled threats of change by force.

Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and John Bolton, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security -- two proponents of the "democratic domino" -- have clearly stated that Washington's ambitions do not end in Baghdad. Though no-one has suggested the use of force.

"I think a lot of countries, including Syria, will eventually get the message from this (Iraq war) that it is much better to come to terms peacefully with the international community, to not acquire these weapons of mass destruction, to not use terrorism as an incentive of national policy," Wolfowitz said.

US Secretary of State Colin Powell however told the Arab daily Al Hayat that "nobody in the American administration talks of invading Iran or Syria," but Washington does wish those countries would change their policies.

Saudi Arabia, a traditional ally of the United States, is now in a difficult position with the United States. Many Washington commentators close to the administration have pointed out that most of those responsible for the September 11 terror attacks on the United States in 2001 were Saudis, and that the Saudi government did not givethe expected support for the US-led campaign in Iraq.

Some analysts fear however that the administration's approach to reforming the Middle East could backfire. "The more the Bush administration talks about bold ambitions to transform the political status quo in the Middle east, the more the Bush administration implicitly or sometimes explicitly threaten Iraq's neighbors," said Jon Alterman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"The more we talk about how this will lead to regime change (in other countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia) the more I think we give these countries an incentive to try to keep Iraqi politics unsettled." On a more positive note, the United States also has been more visible in welcoming democratic progress in other countries in the region, such as after elections in Morocco and Bahrain.

Powell also announced last year that 25 million dollars would be spent in a campaign to promote social and political change in the Middle East. And Washington has promised renewed efforts to settle the Israeli-Palestinian dispute as soon as a Palestinian prime minister is in place as a counterweight to Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

The administration hopes the fall of Saddam will create a more favorable backdrop for the peaceful emergence of a Palestinian state.

Garner waiting for last shot to be fired in Baghdad

by Francis Temman

WASHINGTON, April 9 (AFP) - Jay Garner, the retired general who is to run Iraq's postwar interim administration, will only go to Baghdad when the last shot is fired. The 64-year-old Garner, who has been called a governor-in-waiting, the new sheriff of Baghdad and various other epithets, has been keeping a low profile in Kuwait while the US Army finishes its work and the US administration wrangles over how to run Iraq.

"They'll move to the Baghdad area at that point that the Baghdad airport is sufficiently secured to take a number of civilians who are not in a combat situation," US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Wednesday.

General Richard Myers, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Garner did not need to be in Iraq to work. "It really doesn't matter where General Garner and his group is because they are, in fact, acting now," he said. "The restoration of water supplies in several southern towns, the restoration of electrical power grids, he's the one that is overseeing that work."

Garner knows Iraq and he knows about war so he has credentials for this delicate task. But the three-star general has also come under fire for his links to defense industry and his ardent pro-Israel stance. Garner is on leave from SY Technology to head the US Defense Department's Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance for Iraq, working under the head of the US Central Command, General Tommy Franks, who will be Iraq's immediate post-war ruler.

He will have to make sure humanitarian assistance reaches the hardest hit and to prepare the ground for a civilian -- Iraqi -- interim authority. Garner is a personal friend of Rumsfeld, was an assistant deputy chief of staff during the 1991 Gulf War, and directed several major Defense Department programs including the Patriot anti-missile system.

Notably, Garner was President Ronald Reagan's point man, as the commanding general of the army's Space and Strategic Defense Command, on the "Star Wars" missile defense scheme. His admirers describe him as compassionate and people-oriented, and his role in the resettlement of Kurdish refugees to northern Iraq following the Gulf War has been emphasized.

While naming a military man to a civilian role has a precedent in Japan after World War II -- General Douglas MacArthur -- it appears unprecedented to have someone in charge of rebuilding a country who until recently headed a company that was partially responsibile for its destruction.

Garner became president of SY Coleman after retiring from the army in 1997 with a near total lack of experience in the private sector. The high-technology defense contractor, acquired by defense giant L-3 Communications last year, makes missile guidance systems.

The choice of a man so closely tied to the military industrial complex to run the civil administration of post-war Iraq has raised questions of a possible conflict of interest. David Kirp, a professor of ethics at Berkeley University, said that Garner was a "charming example" of American indifference toward the Iraqi people and showed the lack of foresight by the US administration.

A retired lieutenant colonel of the space command, Biff Baker, alleged that Garner used his Pentagon connections to win 100 million dollars in contracts for SY Coleman. Garner, who denied any wrongdoing, countered with a defamation suit, and the matter was settled out of court in January.

More troubling for some are Garner's stated political views in support of Israel and his ties with the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, which have prompted accusations of Zionism from some Arab critics. He has been regularly denounced by the Council on American-Islamic Relations for his views.

This is perhaps why the Pentagon has indicated that Garner will hold the position for only a few months until he is replaced by a civilian figure.

Kuwaitis overjoyed with Iraqi "liberation" 12 years after their own

by Fiona MacDonald

KUWAIT CITY, April 9 (AFP) - Kuwait, liberated from Iraqi occupation more than 12 years ago by a US-led coalition, joyously welcomed the end of Saddam Hussein's regime Wednesday. Kuwaitis largely spent the day glued to the nearest television screen, watching intently as US tanks rolled into central Baghdad and a jubilant Iraqi population received them with open arms.

The Kuwaitis had given American soldiers the very same welcome when their country was freed from a seven-month Iraqi occupation in February 1991 after the Gulf War. For many here, the most symbolic of events was the tearing down of Saddam's statue in downtown Baghdad, and if they couldn't exact revenge on the elusive Saddam himself, destroying his personality cult had to be the next best thing.

Ahmad, a 40-year-old, was watching events unfold as he had his hair cut at a barber shop in Kuwait City. "It's all very interesting. The images of the statue are amazing. It's a new era in the Arab world, and we're happy to see that. We hope there will be new democracy in the Arab world ... yes, the war was worth it," he told AFP.

"People in Kuwait are happy with these scenes but they want the man himself," said Sulaiman Ibrahim. "Kuwaitis have a personal vendetta with Saddam. It's interesting that the Arab television stations are stunned, unable to understand what's going on while Kuwait was many steps ahead in anticipating the Iraqi response," Sulaiman said.

Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah congratulated Iraqis "on their liberation" and praised "the enormous efforts by the coalition forces." "The brotherly Iraqi people have suffered from several wars over these long years. They have the right to enjoy freedom and benefit from the wealth that has been stolen from them," he said in a statement.

Abdul Aziz, a Kuwaiti financial advisor, said he felt "great, but we wish they would catch Saddam, this is really what we want. And we want the Iraqi people to judge him." But Abdul Aziz said he felt it was too soon to talk about future relations with Iraq "because we have many things to deal with before that," primarily the unresolved issue of 600-odd Kuwaitis still missing since the occupation.

"I feel very, very happy," said Fatma Mulla. "I'm so happy for the Iraqi people. They're dancing in the streets. It's good the war has ended. "But where is the Republican Guard and the Iraqi resistance? I think it was all lies," said Mulla, who confessed to watching television non-stop since the start of three-week war.

"I want them to catch Saddam alive, and his two sons ... then hand them to the Kurds and to the Iraqis in the south, then I'd like to see what will happen. This is my dream," said civil servant Talib Abbas.  The Iraqi people "are being liberated. They couldn't even talk about Saddam before the liberation," Abbas added.

Virtually everywhere here, the response was the same. Kuwaitis say they have waited more than 12 years to watch the downfall of Saddam, whose seven-month occupation and repeated threats thereafter tormented this tiny emirate.

"This is a natural development following (US-led) military operations which started three weeks ago to liberate Iraq and bring freedom for the Iraqi people," a senior Kuwaiti official said of Wednesday's events. "It's what we expected in fact, from day one," the official told AFP, requesting anonymity.

Some, meanwhile, said they thought the war's outcome would serve as a lesson to other Arab rulers. "I've been glad since the war started ... this was an expected end," said Mohammed al-Jassim, editor of the mass-circulating Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Watan. "Sure, I welcome it, not just as a Kuwaiti but as an Arab who wants to see a good future. The fall of Saddam will give the other states enough indication that they have to do something for their own people or they may face the same future.

"Today is a clear lesson for dictatorships in the Arab world. I think they should start looking for ways to change their people's lives," said Jassim.

US says Saddam is finished but not the war

WASHINGTON, April 9 (AFP) - US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on Wednesday dumped Saddam Hussein among history's "failed, brutal dictators" as he celebrated the end of the Iraqi leader's rule but US leaders insisted the Iraq war is not finished.

The White House cautiously warned that "grave danger" could still lie ahead in Iraq as plans for the post-war administration of the country also gathered pace. US officials said they had no firm evidence to say whether Saddam was dead or alive.

Rumsfeld said the scenes of Iraqis tearing down statues of Saddam in Baghdad were "breathtaking" and said Saddam would go down in history alongside notorious dictators Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, Vladimir Lenin and Nicolae Ceaucescu.

"Watching them, one cannot help but think of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Iron Curtain," Rumsfeld said. He added: "We are seeing history unfold, events that will shape the course of a country, the fate of the people and potentially the future of the region." "Saddam Hussein is now taking his rightful place alongside Hitler, Stalin, Lenin and Ceaucescu in the pantheon of failed, brutal dictators," Rumsfeld declared.

"The tide is turning. The regime has been dealt a serious blow. But coalition forces will not stop until they have finished the job," Rumsfeld told a Pentagon press briefing. US President George W. Bush, who missed the live television broadcast of the Saddam statue falling in Baghdad's Paradise Square, remained more wary.

"As much as the president is pleased to see the progress of the military campaign, and the Iraqi people finding freedom where they are finding it, he remains very cautious because he knows that there is grave danger that could still lie ahead," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters.

Vice President Dick Cheney also said "hard fighting" may lie ahead. Fleischer said: "We are still in the midst of a shooting war, and men and women are still in harm's way. The war is not over. There remain a lot of dangers ahead."

The White House, Defense Department and US intelligence also said they did not know if Saddam and his sons had survived a bombing raid Monday on a Baghdad building where they were believed to be meeting. But Fleischer was adamant that the Iraqi leader had missed his chance to go "peacefully" into exile.

Meanwhile a senior State Department official said the United States was planning to convene a meeting of Iraqi exiles and local leaders as early as next week in Iraq as a first step in organizing an interim indigenous government for the country.

"We want to talk to people from exile communities, locals on the ground, and we want them to talk to each other to get their ideas on the next steps toward the IIA," the official told AFP on condition of anonymity, referring to the Iraqi Interim Authority. A second official said the meeting could be held as early as next Tuesday but played down speculation that it would take place in the city of Nasiriyah, where the controversial leader of one Iraqi exile group is now based.

The official said Nasiriyah would almost certainly not be the venue, due to concerns that the leader, Ahmad Chalabi of the Iraqi National Congress, might use the opportunity to try to seize complete control of the IIA. "The people who are talking about Nasiriyah are people who see this as a coronation for Chalabi, and that is definitely not what this is going to be," the official said.

Chalabi, who commands the Free Iraqi Forces, is not trusted by both the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency but has supporters in the Pentagon, which has championed his cause.

Rumsfeld says Syria aiding Iraqi regime

WASHINGTON, April 9 (AFP) - Senior Iraqi leaders are fleeing to Syria, which is continuing to send military assistance into Iraq, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld charged Wednesday. "I have accurately advised that they not provide military assistance to Iraq," he said. "They seem to have made a conscious decision to ignore that.

"Senior regime people are moving out of Iraq into Syria and Syria is continuing to send things into Iraq. We find it notably unhelpful," he said.

Lebanon says Islamic fundamentalists attacked McDonald's

BEIRUT, April 9 (AFP) - Lebanese Islamic fundamentalists carried out Saturday's dynamite blast in a crowded McDonald's restaurant that injured three people, and other similar attacks, Information Minister Elias Murr said Wednesday, announcing five arrests. "We have succeeded in putting our hands on the ring which carried out the attack on a McDonald's and other restaurants belonging to American companies," he said.

"We have already arrested five Lebanese who have admitted being fundamentalists and investigations are under way to catch the other members of  the ring and the instigators," he told journalists. Murr said weapons, including an anti-tank rocket, had been found at the home of one of the suspects, who said rocket attacks were planned on US and British interests in Lebanon.

He warned that the authorities would crack down with an iron hand on anyone attempting to disturb public order. Three people, including a young girl, were lightly wounded when a stick of dynamite exploded in a washroom at the McDonald's restaurant in Dora, a Christian suburb of the Lebanese capital, during Saturday's mid-afternoon rush.

At the same time there was an explosion inside a car parked in front of the restaurant. The vehicle's rear window shattered in the blast, but the bomb apparently malfunctioned in the car, which was packed with 55 kilograms (120 pounds) of explosives.

There have been several attacks against US fast food outlets throughout Lebanon since the start of March, but this was the first daylight one.

US seeks complete overhaul of pro-Saddam Iraqi education system

by Magan Crane

WASHINGTON, April 9 (AFP) - Well before the last shot was fired in Baghdad, the US administration was already well into plans to scrub Saddam Hussein's militaristic rhetoric from Iraq's schools. The United States Agency for International Development is reviewing bids for a contract, reported to be worth some 65 million dollars, to revamp Iraq's educational system, from printing new textbooks to handing out chalkboards, pencils and book bags.

"We issued a request for proposals in February which includes teacher training and the printing of new textbooks. No contractor has yet been chosen to carry out this work, but it will be similar to what is being done in Afghanistan," said USAID spokesman Harry Edwards.

In its request for bids, USAID said the educational system in a post-war Iraq must "lay a foundation for democratic practices and attitudes among children and educators."

Contractors are also encouraged to "take the issue of ethnic balance in its program into consideration." But reformers face an uphill climb. Current Iraqi textbooks are chock full of adulation for Saddam and constant encouragement to use force to defend the current Iraqi regime against enemies.

According to a report by the Paris-based International Federation for Human Rights, "children are conditioned in Saddam Hussein's Iraq ... through direct action, having an impact on their inner self and starting when they are very young."

One Iraqi mother told the group that her 10-year-old daughter had already been trained to handle weapons; "and students who do not join in are given lower marks at school." The rights group said the indoctrination is part of Saddam's strategy to retain his tight grip on his country, as outlined in a 1977 speech, delivered two years before he took power.

"Some fathers have escaped our hold for various reasons, but a young boy is still in our hands," the rights group quoted Saddam as saying. "Teach him to stand up to one or the other of his parents." Saddam continued to say that such a student would "be able to stand in the sun, bearing arms day and night, without flagging ... when asked to confront the imperialists."

The winning contractor will be charged with providing school supplies, including textbooks, to all "permissive" areas by the start of the school year, although Edwards said the exact date was yet to be set. By the end of the first year, the contractor should have distributed student kits to 4.2 million children in 25,000 schools that have enough equipment and supplies to provide "a standard level of quality."

For starters, USAID Tuesday awarded a one-million-dollar, one-year grant to the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) for basic education in Iraq, reiterating that the United States has made revamping education there a priority.

"The children of Iraq are the country's future," USAID Administrator Andrew Natsios said in a statement. "This grant will help ensure regular school attendance, a critical element in creating a stable and functioning society in Iraq."

In Afghanistan, USAID funded a 16.5-million-dollar program to revamp education, which provided 50 tonnes of primary textbooks distributed in that country last month. A consortium led by Washington-based Creative Associates International will have printed and handed out more than 10 million rewritten textbooks by late May, according to a company statement.

Warm welcome stuns US tank troops in central Baghdad

by Ezzedine Said

BAGDHAD, April 9 (AFP) - US troops who rolled into the very heart of  Baghdad aboard tanks Wednesday voiced their surprise at the warm welcome extended to them by ordinary Iraqis after a tough fight. "The reception by the Iraqis was very warm and this was a big surprise to us. People are very nice," Staff Sergeant Daniel Attilio told AFP in Baghdad's Al-Fardus (Paradise) Square.

"It is really impressive to be in Baghdad. It is nothing like we imagined," said the Houston-born Attilio in the shadow of a huge statue of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein with his hand raised pointing towards Jerusalem.

The statue is surrounded by 37 columns, marking the year of Saddam's birth in 1937, each one bearing the initials SH in Arabic. Attilio, a section leader for one of the amphibious assault vehicles that was one of the armoured column that rumbled into the square in the late afternoon, did say however that the advance to Baghdad had been "difficult at times."

Four tanks and a similar number of personnel carriers with marines atop arrived at 4:40 pm (1240 GMT) from the southeast at the huge roundabout, which the Palestine Hotel overlooks. Dozens of journalists came out of the hotel, their base during the war that entered its 21st day Wednesday, to talk to the marines.

The hatches of the tanks were open with relaxed and smiling crew members exposed, though other marines on foot took up precautionary positions on the pavement. Some Iraqi children plucked flowers to give to the US soldiers, who posed for photographs.

"I never expected to see myself in Baghdad and I never expected such a warm welcome," said Sergeant Grant Zaidz. "We did not face any resistance whatsoever today. We just strolled in," the 20-year-old from Oregon said. In the lobby of the Palestine Hotel, Corporal Matt Hanson and Private First Class Dustin Laderdorf were served Arabic coffee off a tray carried by an Iraqi waiter.

"It feels good, we've finally hit the end of the road. Today there were only a few shots at us from snipers but nothing major," said Hanson, 21, of  Alexandria, Minnesota.  "We haven't seen any enemies in Baghdad and we heard that a lot of them (Iraqi soldiers) have surrendered. "All the way into Baghdad, we were getting thumbs-up from the Iraqis, 'Thank you' and even 'Kill Saddam' in some cases," he said, politely turning down the small cup of bittersweet coffee. Baghdad, Laderdorf said, looked "beautiful."

"I can assure you that we destroyed no more than what our mission required. All of the Iraqis were glad to see us coming in." A group of Iraqis prepared to pull down the square's giant statue of Saddam with the help of an armoured US personnel carrier. One man climbed on to the marble plinth and passed a thick rope round the neck of the statue.

Other men attacked the plinth with a sledgehammer, knocking off the cladding, before the personnel carrier backed up to the statue and a cable was put around the giant figure. The enormous bronze statue was unveiled on April 28 to mark the Iraqi ruler's 65th birthday. It depicts him in civilian clothes, with one arm raised pointing in the direction of Jerusalem.

A huge portrait of Saddam over the entrance to the hotel was set alight, while people paraded around with loudspeakers, saying in Arabic: "Congratulations to the Iraqi people, congratulations to the Iraqi people!"

Bush "heartened" by Iraq war progress

WASHINGTON, April 9 (AFP) - US President George W. Bush is "heartened" by progress in the campaign to disarm and topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein but does not believe the war is over, a top White House official said Wednesday.

"As well as things have gone, it's still a military mission and therefore lives are still at stake," said the aide, who requested anonymity. "But obviously the progress has been very good." Three weeks to the day after Bush ordered the first attacks on Baghdad, jubilant crowds cheered US troops sweeping through the Iraqi capital Wednesday as the Iraqi capital looked set to fall.

"The president continues to get good reports from the field from a military point of view. He continues to be heartened with the progress we're making," the US official told reporters. The Bush aide cautioned neighboring nations against admitting Saddam, saying any effort by the Iraqi dictator to seek refuge would be a "no go" from Washington's point of view.

"He had his opportunity to leave the country, and he didn't take it," said the official, referring to Bush's pre-war ultimatum giving Saddam 48 hours to avert military action by fleeing the country. "We don't know if he's alive or dead."

Asked whether US forces would aim to stem looting in Iraqi cities, the official replied: "As the mission continues, security will improve and increase." Bush huddled with lawmakers at a regularly scheduled breakfast meeting, but none of them spoke to reporters after leaving the White House, which was offering a low-key response to the goings-on in Baghdad.

Saddam's regime in retreat, but not yet finished: Iraqi opposition

by Andrew Gully

LONDON, April 9 (AFP) - Iraqi leaders have retreated to President Saddam Hussein's home region of Tikrit, but the regime cannot be declared finished until their fate, and Saddam's, is known, the Iraqi National Congress (INC)said Wednesday.

"We don't want to get carried away. We have to wait and see what is happening and find out where Saddam is," INC spokesman Ahmed Agha al-Chalabi told AFP in London. "I think they (the Iraqi regime) all moved back from Baghdad. They all went back to the Hamrin mountains and that area around Tikrit. In that area they have hidden bunkers, hidden weaponry," he said.

Saddam was born in the village of Ouja, on the outskirts of Tikrit, a provincial capital on the Tigris river 170 kilometers (105 miles) north of the Iraqi capital. "We cannot say it is the end of the Iraqi regime unless we see the big heads, who are in charge of the regime, captured or killed," said al-Chalabi, reacting to live TV images of jubilant and looting Iraqis in Baghdad.

Members of Iraqi opposition groups, including the INC, are to meet in the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah on Saturday, its organizer Ghassan Atiyyah said in London on Tuesday. Ahmad Chalabi, the Pentagon-backed leader of the INC, a coalition of anti-Saddam groups including Islamists, communists and nationalists, is gearing up for a major role in post-war and is already in Nasiriyah.

On US television last Sunday, he said US forces should remain in Iraq for at least two years, the time it would take for the opposition to get a post-Saddam constitution in place. The Iraqi opposition has given a firm message that they would not accept a "new dictatorship" in their country, and that an interim government should be put in place as soon as possible.

Ahmed Agha al-Chalabi, the INC spokesman in London, said the Iraqi opposition should be given the task of restoring order in towns and cities plagued by widespread looting as the regime's infrastructure collapses. "We have organised fighters, we have organised groups who can really go and take over the authority before a transitional period inside Iraq," he told AFP in a telephone interview.

"The British and the United States can always help but they can not really take over the policing and control" of urban centres, he said. He said Saturday's meeting in Nasiriyah would focus on "organising groups to restore control in the cities."